The Gulf’s security debate has traditionally revolved around energy supplies, maritime routes, military deterrence and the protection of critical infrastructure. These priorities remain essential. Yet the changing regional environment highlights a broader strategic reality: energy security cannot be separated from political stability, and neither can be sustained without addressing the conflicts and vulnerabilities that extend beyond national borders.
For the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the challenge is no longer simply to protect oil and gas exports. It is to build a regional environment in which energy flows, trade networks, investment and economic transformation can withstand political crises and geopolitical competition.
The question, therefore, is whether the Gulf’s long-term security can be achieved through infrastructure and military capabilities alone, or whether it requires a more comprehensive approach that places political settlements and regional stability at the centre of strategic planning.
Energy Security and the Limits of Infrastructure
The strategic importance of the Gulf’s energy infrastructure is difficult to overstate. According to the International Energy Agency, approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil and oil products passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, representing around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. The Strait also carries a substantial share of internationally traded liquefied natural gas, particularly exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
These figures demonstrate why the security of maritime chokepoints is not merely a regional concern. Disruptions can affect energy prices, shipping costs, industrial production and economic confidence far beyond the Middle East.
Gulf states have invested in ports, pipelines, storage facilities, surveillance capabilities and alternative transport routes to reduce exposure to potential disruptions. Such investments are important, but they cannot eliminate the political risks surrounding them.
Infrastructure can redirect trade, but it cannot resolve the conflicts that threaten trade routes. Naval deployments can deter certain threats, but they cannot independently produce legitimate political settlements or rebuild fractured institutions.
A durable energy-security strategy must therefore combine physical protection with preventive diplomacy, regional cooperation and sustained efforts to reduce the sources of instability.
Political Stability as an Economic Asset
Political stability should not be treated as a secondary objective that follows economic development. It is one of the conditions that allows economic transformation to succeed.
The GCC states are pursuing ambitious programmes to diversify their economies, expand private-sector activity, develop tourism and logistics, attract investment and strengthen their positions in technology and advanced industries. These objectives depend on predictable markets, reliable infrastructure, investor confidence and access to international trade.
The World Bank’s December 2025 Gulf Economic Update highlighted the region’s progress in diversification and digital transformation while noting that hydrocarbon dependence, geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in energy markets remain important challenges.
Regional instability can undermine these efforts through higher insurance premiums, disrupted supply chains, delayed investment and increased public expenditure on emergency responses. It can also divert resources away from education, employment, infrastructure and innovation.
The strategic implication is clear: economic diversification and political stability reinforce one another. Diversified economies can be more resilient to energy shocks, while stable regional relationships create better conditions for investment and long-term growth.
For Gulf policymakers, the task is not to choose between energy security and economic transformation. It is to recognise that both depend, in part, on the political conditions surrounding the region.
Yemen: A Central Test of Regional Security
Yemen illustrates the connection between political instability and the wider security of the Arabian Peninsula.
Its geographical position near the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden places it close to important international shipping routes linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Instability along Yemen’s coastline and the continuation of armed conflict can therefore create risks that extend beyond the country itself.
However, Yemen’s importance to the Gulf cannot be reduced to its geography. The country’s political fragmentation, economic deterioration and unresolved disputes over governance also affect border security, migration pressures, humanitarian needs and the prospects for regional economic integration.
A policy focused exclusively on maritime protection may contain individual threats without addressing the political conditions that allow insecurity to persist.
A sustainable approach requires diplomatic engagement, support for effective and accountable institutions, economic recovery and a political process capable of addressing the interests and concerns of Yemen’s diverse communities.
The future of Yemen’s southern question is also relevant to this discussion. Any durable political settlement must take seriously the different political aspirations within the country, including those in the south, rather than assuming that security arrangements alone can resolve longstanding disputes.
This does not mean that the Gulf states must adopt a single political model for Yemen. It means that regional policy should recognise the relationship between inclusive political arrangements, local legitimacy and long-term security.
Yemen should be approached not only as a source of risk but also as a potential partner in regional development. With appropriate political and security conditions, its ports, coastline, workforce and geographical position could contribute to trade, logistics and economic cooperation across the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa.
The Red Sea and the Wider Regional Equation
The security of the Gulf is closely connected to developments in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. These are not isolated strategic theatres. They form an interconnected maritime and economic environment.
Threats to shipping in the Red Sea can affect transport costs, delivery schedules and confidence in international supply chains. Disruptions around Bab al-Mandab may also interact with risks in the Gulf, creating additional pressure on the movement of energy and other essential goods.
For this reason, Gulf security policy would benefit from stronger coordination across maritime surveillance, information-sharing, port protection, crisis communication and diplomatic engagement.
Such cooperation should include relevant coastal states and international partners while respecting national sovereignty and avoiding unnecessary escalation.
Security arrangements are most sustainable when they complement efforts to reduce conflict. The objective should be to prevent crises from becoming interconnected, rather than responding to each incident as an isolated emergency.
From Crisis Management to Regional Resilience
Rethinking Gulf priorities does not require abandoning military deterrence or reducing the importance of energy infrastructure. It requires placing these instruments within a broader framework of regional resilience.
Three priorities deserve particular attention.
First, Gulf states can strengthen preventive diplomacy by maintaining channels of communication during periods of tension and supporting practical mechanisms for de-escalation. Dialogue cannot guarantee agreement, but the absence of communication can make miscalculation more dangerous.
Second, regional economic cooperation should extend beyond energy exports. Cross-border transport, electricity interconnection, digital infrastructure, food security and investment partnerships can create shared interests that make regional disruption more costly for all parties.
Third, economic and development policies should complement political initiatives in fragile neighbouring states. Carefully designed investment, transparent financial support and cooperation with local institutions can help create conditions for recovery, provided that projects are protected against corruption, exclusion and the diversion of resources.
These priorities require patience. Political settlements are rarely immediate, and development assistance cannot substitute for legitimate governance. Nevertheless, treating political stability as a long-term security objective can help Gulf states connect immediate risk management with their wider economic ambitions.
A Broader Definition of Gulf Security
The Gulf’s regional priorities are being shaped by energy-market uncertainty, strategic competition, economic transformation and instability across neighbouring regions. These pressures make it increasingly important to define security in terms broader than the protection of facilities and shipping routes.
Energy infrastructure remains indispensable. Military capabilities remain relevant. Yet neither can independently guarantee a stable environment for investment, trade and development.
The Gulf’s long-term security will also depend on the political relationships it builds, the conflicts it helps resolve and the economic opportunities it creates across its neighbourhood.
Yemen is an important part of that equation, as are the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa and the wider network of regional partnerships.
The central strategic question is no longer simply how the Gulf can protect the energy that powers the global economy. It is how the region can help build political conditions in which energy, trade and development remain secure over time.
Energy security protects the present. Political stability helps make the future sustainable.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect The Arabinform Journal point of view.
Yemeni journalist, writer and political researcher from Hadramout, southern Yemen. His work focuses on Yemeni politics, the Southern Issue, governance, conflict resolution and regional affairs.
